The "No Kings" Protests: A Historic Moment in American Demonstration
Last weekend’s “No Kings” protests have emerged as a significant milestone in American activism, with some estimates suggesting that Saturday’s turnout could rank among the largest single-day protests in U.S. history. Data analyst G Elliott Morris, through his Substack Strength in Numbers, has assessed the participation rates, projecting that between four to six million people took to the streets, which represents about 1.2% to 1.8% of the U.S. population. These numbers have the potential to surpass the previous record set by the 2017 Women’s March, during which between 3.3 million to 5.6 million individuals rallied against Donald Trump’s rhetoric.
Methodology of Estimation
Morris’s approach to estimating the attendance involved two main steps. Initially, his team gathered data from various events, relying primarily on reports from local newspapers. In instances where such information was absent, they turned to estimates provided by protest organizers and attendees. To gauge an accurate nationwide attendance, they applied a statistical method: the medium attendance from the reported protests was utilized as a model for unreported events. "That’s a tough approximation, but at least an empirical one," Morris noted, highlighting the methodology’s intentional design to filter out anomalies that could skew results.
His preliminary numbers align closely with those of Ezra Levin, co-founder of the progressive group Indivisible, who believed that around five million people participated globally. While the figures seem monumental, some experts remain cautious. Jeremy Pressman from the Crowd Counting Consortium has emphasized the need for more time to establish an official tally.
Reactions and Perspectives
The scale of the protests has drawn contrasting reactions. While enthusiastic advocates heralded this turnout as a powerful statement, Trump’s communication director, Steven Cheung, dismissed it as a “complete and utter failure,” labeling the attendance as minimal. The day of the protests also coincided with a celebratory parade for the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary, showcasing the stark political divide.
Omar Wasow, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, observed the emotional and social impact of mass protests. He likened such movements to a standing ovation in a theater, illustrating how early participants embolden others to join in. "If 1.8% of the U.S. adult population showed up to protest on Saturday, it sends a signal to other people that you can stand up, too," he explained.
Historical Context and Comparison
Protests have long been a cornerstone of American civic engagement, and comparing sizes can often be complex. The 1963 March on Washington, where Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his iconic "I Have a Dream" speech, saw around half a million attendees, while the first Earth Day protests in 1970 generated participation from an estimated 20 million people—approximately 10% of the U.S. population at the time.
Crowd estimates from different events throughout history have varied considerably; for instance, five million Americans formed a human chain during the 1986 Hands Across America fundraiser. Meanwhile, protests in recent years, such as the nationwide demonstrations following George Floyd’s murder, have shown substantial turnout, although numbers fluctuated daily.
The 3.5% Rule in Perspective
In the wake of the “No Kings” protests, social media has buzzed about the "3.5% rule," a concept put forth by political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan. Their research, exploring the success of nonviolent movements, suggested that when at least 3.5% of a population participates in a demonstration, it typically triggers change. Given the substantial turnout of “No Kings,” some theorists see this event as a pivotal moment.
However, Morris cautioned against over-reliance on this rule. The nuances of political environments can complicate its applicability, with smaller mobilizations sometimes driving impactful media coverage and alliances.
The Future of Activism
Organizers and participants of the “No Kings” demonstrations are emboldened by their success, gearing up for yet another round of protests scheduled for July 17, coinciding with the anniversary of civil rights leader John Lewis’s passing.
While excitement surrounds future gatherings, Levin emphasized the need for lasting change that cannot occur solely through isolated protests. Effective democracy, he argued, necessitates grassroots organizing that extends beyond merely rallying support at a single moment in time. Engaging communities on a deeper level is essential to ensure that these movements become catalysts for genuine political and social reform.
By fostering these discussions and mobilizations, the “No Kings” protests could very well signify a new chapter in American activism, with the potential for sustained influence in the political sphere.
