The Erosion of America’s Soft Power Under the Trump Administration
President Donald Trump’s foreign policy has prominently featured a confrontational stance toward various nations, advocating an "America First" approach. This marks a significant departure from the U.S.’s historical role as a promoter of multilateralism, democracy, and human rights since World War II. While it may be premature to evaluate the long-term consequences of these policies—given that Trump has been in office for only five months—it is becoming increasingly evident that this posturing risks undermining America’s "soft power."
The Concept of Soft Power
Soft power, a term coined by Harvard professor Joseph Nye, refers to the ability of a country to influence others through attraction and persuasion rather than coercion. It hinges on a nation’s cultural appeal, values, and policies that foster cooperation and admiration. During the Cold War, America’s soft power facilitated global leadership, as forming alliances through shared interests proved more effective than military dominance. As Nye succinctly put it, “Seduction is always more effective than coercion.”
Historical Example: The Marshall Plan
A quintessential example of American soft power is the Marshall Plan, where the U.S. provided approximately $14 billion in foreign aid to a war-torn Europe, equivalent to roughly $195 billion today. This initiative not only revitalized European economies but also created vast new markets for American exports, fueling a period of unprecedented prosperity. The Marshall Plan underscores how benevolent American engagement can yield positive outcomes for both the U.S. and its allies.
Economic Consequences of Soft Power Erosion
The ongoing erosion of American soft power could have significant negative repercussions on the U.S. economy. Research indicates that a decline in soft power can correlate with decreased exports, reduced foreign investment, and diminished tourism. A tarnished international reputation severely hampers a nation’s ability to attract trade partners and investment opportunities.
Uncertain Business Environment
Among the immediate effects of Trump’s policies is the uncertainty faced by American businesses. Fluctuating trade tariffs have led to instability in both imports and exports, creating a challenging climate for economic planning. Businesses are finding it increasingly difficult to navigate the erratic policy landscape, causing a ripple effect throughout the economy.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns of potential downturns in economic indicators, while logistics expert Alan Baer emphasizes the risk posed by high tariffs on Chinese goods, predicting that consumers will ultimately bear the financial burden.
Reliability Pushed to the Limit
The Trump administration’s inconsistent reliability as an ally is turning the tides in relationships with NATO and European nations. Traditionally, the U.S. has been a primary supplier of military and arms imports to European allies, contributing to 64% of total NATO military purchases in recent years. With Trump’s unpredictable stances, European leaders are absorbing the lesson to "rely on themselves."
In response, the European Union has introduced the ReArm Europe initiative, aiming for greater strategic autonomy and investment in defense manufacturing. Reports suggest this move has unsettled the Trump administration, posing long-term challenges for America’s defense industry and local economies tied to it.
Changing Perspectives in Canada
Canada’s leadership is similarly reconsidering its military procurement strategies. Prime Minister Mark Carney has signaled intentions to evaluate alternatives to U.S. military hardware, reflecting a broader trend of countries seeking self-reliance amid doubts about the reliability of U.S. commitments.
Decline in International Tourism
The impact of diminished soft power extends to tourism, as international visitors feel increasingly unwelcome due to heightened immigration scrutiny. The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates that the U.S. may lose $12.5 billion in international traveler spending in the coming year, with declines in visitors from Germany, the UK, and Canada. This downturn in tourism not only affects immediate revenue but also has a multiplier effect on local economies where tourism supports jobs.
Fewer International Students
The narrative continues with the changing landscape for international students. The Trump administration’s negative rhetoric concerning institutions like Harvard has dissuaded prospective students. While international student enrollment reached a record high of 1.1 million in 2024, a crackdown could reverse these gains significantly. International students contribute immensely to the U.S. economy, both in tuition revenue and in local spending, leading to fears of future economic detriment.
Beneficiaries of U.S. Decline: China
Ironically, the diminishing soft power of the U.S. may provide an opportunity for China. As America becomes a less attractive partner for trade and investment, countries often seek new alliances. China has started rolling out initiatives to attract international students and researchers, potentially undermining the U.S.’s traditional role as a global education hub. Such shifts could lead to long-term geopolitical ramifications, bringing future leaders closer to China rather than the United States.
The Irony of America’s Soft Power
The current trajectory reveals a paradox: while other nations are actively enhancing their global engagement, the Trump administration appears to be receding into a defensive stance. Historically, America’s soft power has been its most significant strength, empowering cooperation and goodwill on a global scale. Today, however, a shift toward an isolationist ethos threatens the careful balance the U.S. has cultivated over decades, transforming allies into skeptics.
Steven Hill has served as policy director for the Center for Humane Technology and co-founded FairVote, underscoring his commitment to political reform and innovation in governance. You can follow his insights on X @StevenHill1776.
