In-Depth Analysis: Putin’s Ceasefire May Be a Ploy – But It’s Also a Moment of Truth with Plenty at Stake

By Dominic Waghorn, International Affairs Editor, in Kyiv

In a world where military spectacles often draw curious eyes, Vladimir Putin’s planned Victory Day parade in Moscow is no exception. This year, the event carries significant weight as Chinese leader Xi Jinping joins the festivities, showcasing a fractious but strategic alliance. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, known for his fascination with such displays, watches from afar, perhaps with a hint of envy. The implications of this military spectacle extend far beyond ostentation, particularly for Ukraine’s European allies, who are acutely aware of its potential ripple effects on the fragile peace journey.

Trump and the Quest for a ‘Peace Deal’

Trump’s interests have shifted significantly since the onset of the ongoing conflict. Once a vocal supporter of a “peace deal,” his patience is thinning as he navigates the complexities of the situation in Ukraine. European allies are on edge, wary that Trump’s frustrations might lead him to unfairly scapegoat Ukraine for any perceived lack of progress. They fear a potential reduction in U.S. military support could follow suit.

The proposed "deal" does not fully acquiesce to Russia’s demands for land annexation nor does it mandate the complete demilitarization of Ukraine. However, for many, it still closely aligns with Moscow’s requests, a notion that raises eyebrows, especially considering the gravity of the situation.

The Individuals Behind the Negotiations

Central to Trump’s diplomatic endeavors is Steve Witkoff, a golf partner turned chief negotiator. Many diplomats regard him as somewhat out of his element in the complex arena of international statecraft. Witkoff’s previous dealings with Russian oligarchs and his somewhat romanticized view of Putin only deepen the concerns regarding the sincerity and viability of the proposed negotiations. Kyiv perceives these initiatives as granting undue leniency to the aggressor, casting doubts on the negotiating party’s capabilities.

Ceasefire Dynamics and Escalation Risks

Ukraine has signaled a willingness for a more extended ceasefire, yet Putin’s declaration of a three-day hiatus raises skepticism here in Kyiv. Many view it as little more than a tactical maneuver rather than a genuine effort toward peace. During past truces, notably around Easter, Russia allegedly used such breaks to bolster its military presence and conduct reconnaissance operations.

Thus, the imminent ceasefire is fraught with risks. If either side perceives a breach, especially given past tensions, the situation could spiral into further conflict. Ukrainian drone strikes during significant events like Victory Day could exacerbate this risk dramatically, complicating an already volatile landscape.

The U.S. and its Pivoting Priorities

As the dust settles after the minerals agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine, President Biden appears momentarily appeased, allowing for initial arms sales to commence. Yet, the looming reality remains: tensions and stakes are high in the coming days. With Biden’s focus shifting towards a three-day tour of the Middle East, concerns arise about a potential “vacuum” in U.S. commitment to Ukraine as European allies scramble to strategize on their own.

European Allies’ Dilemma

With the legacy of sacrifices made for peace in Europe weighing on their conscience, allies are faced with a daunting question: can they bolster efforts to support Ukraine in the absence of robust U.S. involvement? Can they unify around a common cause, echoing the unity that prevailed during earlier conflicts? The answers to these questions remain elusive, and the political will required poses a significant challenge.

This unfolding situation is characterized by shifting alliances, competing narratives, and the ever-present threat of escalation. Kyiv remains wary of any gestures coming from Moscow, recognizing the high stakes involved in this ongoing theater of geopolitics. As international players navigate these turbulent waters, the outcome remains uncertain, with each decision carrying the weight of potential consequences.