The Drop in Violent Crime: Understanding the Trends
An Unnoticed Good News Story
The dramatic decline in violent crime that began in the 1990s and continued through the mid-2010s is a significant yet often overlooked success story. This narrative took a concerning turn during the COVID-19 pandemic when crime rates reversed sharply. Understanding what drove these changes is crucial for framing current and future discussions on public safety.
The COVID-19 Spike
In the first full year of the pandemic, the FBI recorded a staggering 22,134 murders across the United States, marking a 34% increase from 2019—one of the sharpest rises in modern crime statistics. Major cities felt this impact acutely: Philadelphia reported a record 562 homicides in 2021, while Baltimore faced nearly equal levels of violence with 337 murders. Emergency departments were overwhelmed with a 37% increase in gunshot-related visits, a trend that persisted into the following year.
Politicizing Crime
As the 2024 elections approached, violent crime emerged as a critical issue, with a Pew survey revealing that 58% of Americans considered it a top priority for the president and Congress. This marked an increase from 47% in 2021, emphasizing the public’s heightened concern over rising crime.
The Positive Reversal
Amid this political tumult, the spike in violent crime observed during the pandemic has shown signs of abating. The FBI’s 2023 crime report indicated a nearly 12% year-over-year drop in murders, bringing totals in 2024 down to about 16,700—comparable to pre-pandemic figures. Early projections for 2025 suggest that we might witness the lowest murder rate in U.S. history, as analysts like Jeff Asher continue to scrutinize the data for trends.
Early Indicators of Decrease
While caution is warranted regarding preliminary data, early signs provide a hopeful glimpse into the future. The Real-Time Crime Index, which aggregates crime data from over 380 police agencies covering approximately 100 million people, estimated 1,488 murders in the U.S. through March 2025. This represents a 22% decrease compared to the same period the previous year. Additionally, violent crime overall is down 11%, with motor vehicle theft—a major concern during the pandemic—dipping by over 26%.
Local Insights
At the local level, improvements continue to emerge. Baltimore, often characterized by its drug-related violence, recorded its lowest homicide count in over a decade last year, with 199 murders. By early May of this year, the city had seen 45 murders, a significant reduction that bodes well for an ongoing trend. Emergency rooms that once overflowed with gunshot victims have seen noticeable quiet.
Potential for Further Declines
The historical low homicide rate, recorded in 2014 at 4.45 per 100,000 people, could soon be challenged if current trends hold. Asher points out that 25 of the 30 cities reporting the most murders in 2023 showed decreases, inviting speculation that a 10% or greater national decline in murder rates by 2025 could tie 2014’s record.
What Drives the Decrease?
The correlation between the pandemic’s waning influence and the reduction in violent crime can’t be ignored. During the pandemic, many schools were closed, leading to more young men on the streets—an age group statistically linked to higher rates of violence. Coupled with stressors from the pandemic itself, this environment contributed to the surge.
The murder of George Floyd in 2020 eroded trust in law enforcement, resulting in less aggressive policing. However, as the pandemic eased, community infrastructure and support systems returned, serving as a natural deterrent to crime.
Government Intervention
Policy responses have also played a role. The Biden administration allocated hundreds of millions in funding for community violence interruption programs to disrupt cycles of retaliation. Initiatives like Baltimore’s Group Violence Reduction Strategy collaborate with community organizations and law enforcement to target individuals more likely to engage in gun violence. Notably, the erosion of police forces that occurred during the pandemic has leveled off.
Challenges Ahead
Despite these positive trends, challenges remain. Incidents of police violence persist, with recent data showing an increase in police killings, which could stymie reform efforts. In New York, subway crime rates have dipped to historical lows, but felony assaults on trains are rising, fostering a climate of anxiety around public safety.
Perception vs. Reality
As summer approaches, the observations of crime trends will become more evident. Yet, general public perception lags behind. A Gallup poll from October 2024 revealed that 64% of Americans believed crime was increasing nationwide, even as post-pandemic drops in crime were underway.
This discrepancy isn’t unusual. Historical data shows that in 23 of 27 national surveys conducted by Gallup since 1993, respondents indicated they thought crime was escalating—a perception that has often existed alongside significant decreases in crime rates.
The Role of Media
Crime reporting is a classic example of "bad news bias." Outlier events, like homicides, dominate news narratives, shaping public perception and often leading to an inflated sense of danger. This bias can skew our understanding of reality, potentially draining energy from initiatives aimed at enacting meaningful reforms in crime prevention and community safety.
As we navigate these complex issues, it’s essential to confront both the data and perceptions, ensuring that narratives reflect the reality on the ground.
