Bob Baffert’s Post Assignment Dilemma in the Triple Crown Races
Bob Baffert, a name synonymous with success in the horse racing world, finds himself in a peculiar predicament this year when it comes to post assignments in the Triple Crown races. The Kentucky Derby served as an unfortunate stage for both Baffert and his equine hopefuls. Citizen Bull, the lone representative of Baffert’s stable, drew post No. 1—a position notorious for its challenges. Despite having a promising start to the season, winning both the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Citizen Bull finished far behind, placing fifteenth while Sovereignty, victorious out of post 18, surged ahead.
The Weight of Post Positions
For trainers like Baffert, the importance of post position cannot be overstated. The statistics for each post reveal significant historical trends, especially at the famous Churchill Downs. The last Derby winner from post No. 1 was in 1986, making it a spot many trainers may prefer to avoid. This year, with Rodriguez, Baffert’s best chance for a seventh Derby win sidelined by injury, the pressure was on Citizen Bull to somehow defy the odds and live up to early season expectations.
A Repeat Performance at the Preakness
Baffert’s post position woes continue, as his horse Goal Oriented has drawn the dreaded post No. 1 for the upcoming Preakness Stakes. While some may argue that post assignments are assigned at random, the shadow of past performances looms large. Historically, post No. 1 has a chequered past but does have its successes. Notably, Baffert’s American Pharoah triumphed from this very spot in 2015, and War of Will also claimed victory from post 1 in 2019. Baffert himself noted, "Once you draw, you can’t think about it." He recalls his previous experiences with post No. 1, underscoring the unpredictability of racing.
The Preakness Context
While post No. 1 may carry more baggage in the Derby, the stakes are different at the Preakness. Statistically, post No. 1 has yielded 13 wins in the lottery of horse racing. Comparatively, post No. 6 stands out as the luckiest lane, boasting a record of 17 victories. It’s worth noting that the Preakness also has its own "unlucky" post—post No. 14—which has yet to produce a single winner since the race’s inception.
An Optimistic Outlook
Even with the challenges that pit the odds against him, Baffert seems unwavered. Goal Oriented enters the race undefeated, providing a glimmer of hope for the Hall of Fame trainer. Flavien Prat, who previously savored victory in the Preakness, will be steering the helm. "He [Goal Oriented] is not as fast as these other horses on paper," Baffert acknowledged, yet he remains optimistic about the horse’s potential.
The Pros and Cons of Post No. 1
Racing from post No. 1 comes with a mix of advantages and disadvantages. On one hand, horses starting from this position navigate shorter distances around turns, which can be advantageous. However, racing amid a crowded field presents its own array of challenges; maintaining focus and control amidst the chaos is no small feat, especially for inexperienced horses and jockeys.
Baffert, Goal Oriented, and Prat will undoubtedly face a challenging race ahead. Only time will tell if they can turn the tide of fate and leverage the unpredictable landscape of post positions in this year’s Preakness Stakes.
