The landscape of international inbound business travel to the U.S. in 2025 has been a topic of significant speculation, fueled by various geopolitical and economic factors. One major influence has been the mixed international reception of the Trump administration’s tariff policies, alongside concerns regarding the treatment of inbound visitors. Despite these challenges, recent data indicates a promising trend in business travel demand, although Canada and Mexico present notable exceptions.
According to preliminary data from the U.S. International Trade Administration, the number of international visitors to the U.S. in May—excluding those coming from Canada and Mexico—decreased by 2.8 percent year-over-year. In contrast, there was a 1.7 percent increase in the number of travelers entering the U.S. on business visas or through the Visa Waiver Program. This uptick in business travel is particularly interesting given that May provided a reliable year-over-year comparison, unaffected by shifting holiday calendars that typically complicate these assessments.
Understanding these trends is crucial as tourism and business travel often ebb and flow around holiday schedules. For example, Easter in 2024 fell on March 31, while in 2025 it landed on April 20. Such shifts can significantly impact travel patterns, with March 2025 showing impressive year-over-year growth, while April recorded losses in comparison. Hence, the business travel increase in May becomes even more notable, indicating potential recovery in specific segments of the industry.
When examining year-to-date performance through the end of May, arrivals from international business travelers utilizing business visas significantly rose by 4.2 percent compared to the previous year, excluding Canada and Mexico. Notably, arrivals from Western Europe increased by 2.1 percent, while those from Asia surged by 6.4 percent, and South America showed a solid increase of 4.7 percent. These figures illustrate a diverse and gradually recovering international landscape for U.S. business travel.
However, the narrative changes when we pivot our focus to the U.S.’s immediate neighbors—Canada and Mexico. Preliminary data continues to highlight a downward trend in business travel from both countries. Specifically, for May, travelers entering the U.S. from Mexico on business visas (excluding land arrivals) saw a stark decline of 13.6 percent year-over-year. This decline was significant enough to impact the overall international figures, reducing the monthly growth rate to just 0.5 percent.
Examining the data year-to-date through May again reveals concerning trends: arrivals from Mexico, again excluding land-based entries, plummeted by 16.6 percent. This decline raises questions about the ongoing bilateral relationships and the implications of U.S. policy decisions that may alienate potential visitors.
Across the northern border, Canada is witnessing similar challenges. Resentment stemming from U.S. tariffs and President Trump’s controversial remarks about Canada joining the U.S. have contributed to a palpable decline in leisure travel. In May, air travel return trips for Canadian residents from the United States dropped more than 24 percent year-over-year, contrasting sharply with a decline of less than 4 percent for return trips from other countries. Additionally, return trips from the U.S. by car saw a staggering 38 percent year-over-year decrease in April.
Recent surveys further emphasize the difficulties faced in attracting Canadian tourists. A survey conducted between May 16 and 19 with over 1,500 Canadians revealed that only 10 percent planned to visit the U.S. that summer, a significant drop from 23 percent the previous year. Furthermore, 56 percent of those who had initially intended to travel to the U.S. indicated that they now plan to seek alternative destinations instead, reflecting a broader shift in travel sentiment.
